1.3 Transition to 2050

Getting to 2050: Canada's Transition to a Low-emission Future — Advice for Long-term Reductions of Greenhouse Gases and Air Pollutants

The inescapable effects of climate change and air pollution over the next several decades require Canada to embark upon a focused transition to a low-emission society. As we do so, a dominant feature in the global, national and regional economies will be a constraint on GHG and air pollutant emissions. This constraint will necessitate significant changes to energy systems – both in terms of energy production and consumption, as well as the way in which Canadians work and live their lives. The issues of climate change and air pollution will clearly present challenges to Canadians, in terms of our ability to mitigate potential effects, as well as to adapt to changing conditions.

A central question for Canadians, therefore, is, "How can we, as a nation, ensure that the transition to a low-emission future is done in a sustainable manner?"

As a starting point, while recognizing the need to implement policies now to start us on the emission reduction pathway, we need to equally focus our attention on designing and implementing policies for the medium and longer term. Defining our future direction now is important since it will influence many capital stock and infrastructure investment decisions made over the next decade that will determine whether Canada can effectively and efficiently move to a low-emission (GHG and air pollutant) pathway in the longer term. In this respect, emission reduction policies are also investment-driving policies. Indeed, the policy choices we make now will determine our ability to achieve deep reductions later.

And if we transition successfully to this low-emission future, what would Canada look like in 2050? Recognizing that there is uncertainty about what the future holds, recent NRTEE research [6]illustrates one possible scenario, including, but not limited to some of the following observations:

• Personal use of energy has changed significantly. For example, housing densities have increased to the point where 70% of Canadians live in some form of multiple dwelling, and personal vehicles and homes are much more energy efficient.
  
• Energy demand and use will continue to rise but energy systems will have transformed. [7] For example, electricity is made by a much more diverse and widely distributed set of generators, including an expanded role for renewables; however, Canada continues to rely heavily on its hydroelectric resources. Where coal is still used to produce electricity, CO₂ capture and sequestration has been designed into the plants and where possible, this captured CO₂ is used to enhance oil recovery. Existing nuclear plants are replaced, with additional capacity added in Ontario.
  
• Freight distribution has not changed dramatically since 2000. The efficiency of the trucks used to move freight has doubled or tripled over the past four decades and on average biodiesel now provides about 20% of the energy required for the sector.
  
• The industrial structure in Canada has continued its gradual shift to services and high technology manufacturing, leading to improved energy efficiency across the economy.

This transition need not be forbidding or overwhelming to Canadians. Think back to technological changes in the past 20 to 30 years alone that have changed the way we live and work, but for which we now take for granted – from computers to cellular phones to the Internet in our homes and offices. We have not only adjusted to these major transformations, we have embraced them throughout our society.

The next section explores how we might manage this transition.

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